Significant attention has recently focused on retirements from the House of Representatives and the Senate, prior to the upcoming presidential election in 2020. The reasons are various: declining health, scandal, or perhaps as the unstated notion: fear of losing in a heated political theatre.
Nonetheless, the 116th Congress’ Casualty List seems to add another Congressional official by the day.
Accelerating retirements, especially among Republicans, are changing demographics and diminished voter support in suburban areas. While these areas were once considered a bastion of the party’s support, the election of Donald J. Trump in 2016 has pushed away two of the party’s key voting blocs: suburbanites and women.
Formerly safe Republican seats such as Georgia’s 6th & 7th Districts, have in the last two election cycles attracted national attention. While the 6th District became a Democratic held seat after the 2018 midterm election, Republicans narrowly held the 7th by just 433 votes.
To date, 25 Republicans in the House are declining to seek re-election, while 9 Democrats are following suit. Four Republicans and Three Democrats are seeking other offices.
While it remains too early to predict who will control the House in 2021, the number of Republicans retiring is almost the same as before the 2018 midterms.
The full dataset is below: